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Astrana Health Inc (ASTH) stock analysis
SKIP 11% confidence · analysed Sep 16, 2026
This analysis is from Sep 16, 2026 and may be out of date.
On Sep 16, 2026, our model rated Astrana Health Inc (ASTH) SKIP with 11% confidence at a price of $38.88. That means the signals cancel out; the model sees no clear edge either way.
Technical picture
The 14-day RSI is 52, close to the neutral 50 line, so momentum is balanced.
MACD is above its signal line, a sign that short-term momentum is turning up.
The price has slipped below its 50-day moving average but is still above the 200-day: a pullback inside a longer-term uptrend.
Volume is only 0.1x its 20-day average; light trading makes the latest move less convincing.
Trend structure and money flow
Market structure: ranging / no clear structure.
The most recent swing high is $51.60 and the swing low is $18.08; traders often treat these as resistance and support.
Price is sitting in a bullish order block, a zone where large buyers stepped in before.
Fundamentals
The company reports a profit margin of 1.1% and revenue growth of +48.5%.
In its latest quarter it earned $0.80 per share, which beat the $0.73 analysts expected, with revenue +48.5% year over year.
The next earnings report is expected around Nov 5, 2026; prices often move sharply around earnings.
Research notes
ASTH’s bull case remains solid: the company just guided 2026 revenue to $3.8B–$4.1B with adjusted EBITDA of $255M–$280M and free cash flow of $105M–$132.5M, while broker sentiment is still “Moderate Buy” with an average target around $49.43 versus a recent price near $38. The bear case is that the stock still faces policy and reimbursement risk, highlighted by a Sept. 15 selloff tied to Medicare Advantage prior-authorization reform concerns, and the company is not yet priced for flawless execution. The major new catalyst is the updated investor presentation and guidance filed Sept. 15, which reinforces the growth story and near-term profitability path. Latest public information and price action broadly agree with the prior positive view: the stock has been slightly up since the last look, and the new guidance/newsflow remains constructive.
The model's one-paragraph read
No clear edge (SKIP) — composite score +0.11 (SKIP). Technicals: RSI 51.87, MACD bullish, price below SMA50. Fundamentals: margin 1.1%, revenue growth 48.5%. Financial results: YoY revenue +48.5%, last EPS surprise +9.6%, next earnings 2026-11-05. Smart Money Concepts: ranging / no clear structure, price retesting a bullish order block, price retesting a bearish order block. FinGPT news read: neutral. Memory: 4 prior look(s); 100% of directional calls matched later price. Internet research: ASTH’s bull case remains solid: the company just guided 2026 revenue to $3.8B–$4.1B with adjusted EBITDA of $255M–$280M and free cash flow of $105M–$132.5M, while broker sentiment is still “Moderate Buy” with an average target around $49.43 versus a recent price near $38. The bear case is that the stock still faces policy and reimbursement risk, highlighted by a Sept. 15 selloff tied to Medicare Advantage prior-authorization reform concerns, and the company is not yet priced for flawless execution. The major new catalyst is the updated investor presentation and guidance filed Sept. 15, which reinforces the growth story and near-term profitability path. Latest public information and price action broadly agree with the prior positive view: the stock has been slightly up since the last look, and the new guidance/newsflow remains constructive. Reference price $38.77; no trade levels (SKIP).
Past ratings for ASTH
Of the last 2 directional calls on ASTH, 2 pointed the right way by the most recent analysis (100%). Past calls do not guarantee future results.
| Date | Verdict | Confidence | Price | Move since | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | SKIP | 11% | $38.88 | — | |
| Sep 15, 2026 | WEAK BUY | 15% | $38.68 | +0.5% | ✔ right direction |
| Sep 14, 2026 | WEAK BUY | 16% | $38.58 | +0.8% | ✔ right direction |
"Move since" compares each call's price with the latest analysed price.
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Frequently asked questions
Is ASTH a buy right now?
As of Sep 16, 2026, our automated model rates Astrana Health Inc (ASTH) SKIP with 11% confidence: the signals cancel out; the model sees no clear edge either way. This is a model output for education, not personal investment advice.
When does Astrana Health Inc report earnings next?
The next earnings report is expected around Nov 5, 2026.
What does a SKIP rating mean?
A SKIP rating means the signals cancel out; the model sees no clear edge either way.
For information and education only. Not investment advice. Ratings are produced by an automated model, can be wrong, and may be out of date. Do your own research; you can lose money investing. The site's author may hold positions in stocks discussed here.