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McDonald's Corporation (MCD) stock analysis
SKIP 7% confidence · analysed Oct 13, 2026
On Oct 13, 2026, our model rated McDonald's Corporation (MCD) SKIP with 7% confidence at a price of $235.65. That means the signals cancel out; the model sees no clear edge either way.
Technical picture
The 14-day RSI is 27, below 30, which is oversold territory: sellers have pushed hard recently. Oversold stocks often bounce, but they can stay weak for a while.
MACD is above its signal line, a sign that short-term momentum is turning up.
The price is below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, the classic picture of a downtrend.
Volume is only 0.7x its 20-day average; light trading makes the latest move less convincing.
Trend structure and money flow
Market structure shows a bearish break of structure (BOS): price broke a recent swing low in the direction of the trend, which usually signals trend continuation.
The most recent swing high is $335.18 and the swing low is $287.06; traders often treat these as resistance and support.
Price is sitting in a bullish order block, a zone where large buyers stepped in before.
Fundamentals
The PEG ratio is 2.48, which looks expensive relative to its growth.
The company reports a profit margin of 31.7% and revenue growth of +3.7%.
In its latest quarter it earned $3.38 per share, which beat the $3.32 analysts expected, with revenue +3.8% year over year.
Wall Street's average rating is 2.1 on a 1 (strong buy) to 5 (sell) scale, roughly a "buy", with an average price target of $292.21.
The next earnings report is expected around Nov 4, 2026; prices often move sharply around earnings.
Research notes
McDonald’s bull case remains its resilient franchise and royalty model, roughly 3.3% dividend yield, valuation discount after a 30% decline from its February peak, and potential for the NEXT investments to improve traffic and franchisee economics. The bear case is persistent U.S. weakness—latest same-store sales rose just 0.8%—plus inconsistent value execution, slower unit growth, franchisee resistance to remodel costs, and legal risk around AI-driven pricing. A major recent catalyst is the NEXT rollout: franchisees may face about $800,000 per location in upgrades, while McDonald’s has committed approximately $8.5 billion in cash and rent support; the next scheduled catalyst is expected Q3 earnings on November 4. MCD closed at $235.65, essentially unchanged from the prior view’s $235.65, while analysts recently cut targets despite a Moderate Buy consensus, so the latest information and price action broadly agree with the prior neutral view.
The model's one-paragraph read
No clear edge (SKIP) — composite score +0.07 (SKIP). Technicals: RSI 27.41, MACD bullish, price below SMA50. Fundamentals: PEG 2.48, margin 31.7%, revenue growth 3.7%. Financial results: YoY revenue +3.8%, last EPS surprise +1.8%, next earnings 2026-11-04. Smart Money Concepts: BOS bearish (trend continuation), price retesting a bullish order block, price retesting a bearish order block. FinGPT news read: neutral. Memory: 5 prior look(s); 0% of directional calls matched later price. Internet research: McDonald’s bull case remains its resilient franchise and royalty model, roughly 3.3% dividend yield, valuation discount after a 30% decline from its February peak, and potential for the NEXT investments to improve traffic and franchisee economics. The bear case is persistent U.S. weakness—latest same-store sales rose just 0.8%—plus inconsistent value execution, slower unit growth, franchisee resistance to remodel costs, and legal risk around AI-driven pricing. A major recent catalyst is the NEXT rollout: franchisees may face about $800,000 per location in upgrades, while McDonald’s has committed approximately $8.5 billion in cash and rent support; the next scheduled catalyst is expected Q3 earnings on November 4. MCD closed at $235.65, essentially unchanged from the prior view’s $235.65, while analysts recently cut targets despite a Moderate Buy consensus, so the latest information and price action broadly agree with the prior neutral view. Reference price $235.5; no trade levels (SKIP).
Past ratings for MCD
Of the last 2 directional calls on MCD, 2 pointed the right way by the most recent analysis (100%). Past calls do not guarantee future results.
| Date | Verdict | Confidence | Price | Move since | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | SKIP | 7% | $235.65 | — | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | SKIP | 1% | $235.23 | +0.2% | |
| Sep 28, 2026 | WEAK BUY | 13% | $235.26 | +0.2% | ✔ right direction |
| Sep 24, 2026 | SKIP | 5% | $238.32 | -1.1% | |
| Sep 23, 2026 | SKIP | 1% | $239.32 | -1.5% | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | WEAK SELL | 28% | $253.48 | -7.0% | ✔ right direction |
"Move since" compares each call's price with the latest analysed price.
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Frequently asked questions
Is MCD a buy right now?
As of Oct 13, 2026, our automated model rates McDonald's Corporation (MCD) SKIP with 7% confidence: the signals cancel out; the model sees no clear edge either way. This is a model output for education, not personal investment advice.
When does McDonald's Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is expected around Nov 4, 2026.
What does a SKIP rating mean?
A SKIP rating means the signals cancel out; the model sees no clear edge either way.
For information and education only. Not investment advice. Ratings are produced by an automated model, can be wrong, and may be out of date. Do your own research; you can lose money investing. The site's author may hold positions in stocks discussed here.