The company filed a material 8-K report with the SEC, so the model re-ran its full analysis. The rest of the picture is mixed, so the headline alone is not enough for a clear call.
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Simmons First National Corp (SFNC) stock analysis
WEAK BUY 31% confidence · analysed Oct 15, 2026
On Oct 15, 2026, our model rated Simmons First National Corp (SFNC) WEAK BUY with 31% confidence at a price of $22.26. That means the signals lean positive, but they are mixed, so conviction is low.
Analysed price$22.26
Technical picture
The 14-day RSI is 33. Momentum is soft: below the neutral 50 line, but not yet oversold.
MACD is below its signal line, so short-term momentum is pointing down.
The price has slipped below its 50-day moving average but is still above the 200-day: a pullback inside a longer-term uptrend.
Volume is 2.2x its 20-day average, so the latest move has real participation behind it.
Fundamentals
The PEG ratio is 3.83, which looks expensive relative to its growth.
The company reports a profit margin of 0.0% and revenue growth of +14.3%.
In its latest quarter it earned $0.50 per share, which missed the $0.52 analysts expected, with revenue +16.4% year over year.
Wall Street's average rating is 2.3 on a 1 (strong buy) to 5 (sell) scale, roughly a "buy", with an average price target of $25.93.
Trade plan from the model
The model's long / bullish plan uses an entry near $22.26, a target of $23.29 (+4.6%) and a stop-loss at $21.38 (-4.0%).
That is a reward-to-risk ratio of about 1.2 to 1: the potential gain is not much bigger than the loss, so the setup is marginal.
The plan has a time limit: reassess by Oct 25, 2026 whatever the price does.
Entry$22.26
Target$23.29
Stop-loss$21.38
Reassess byOct 25, 2026
Research notes
SFNC’s bull case is that Q3 net interest margin expanded to 3.92%, adjusted EPS reached $0.54, and branch closures and cost controls could generate $37–$42 million in annual savings, supporting operating leverage and future earnings growth. The bear case is weaker balance-sheet momentum—loans and deposits declined sequentially—alongside a revenue miss, continued profitability concerns, and mixed analyst views, including a recent Sell rating with a $26 target. The major recent catalyst was the October 15 Q3 earnings report: adjusted EPS met consensus, but revenue of $251.2 million came below the roughly $254 million estimate, leaving investors focused on whether efficiency gains can offset sluggish growth.
The model's one-paragraph read
Leans BUY — composite score +0.31 (WEAK BUY). Technicals: RSI 32.74, MACD bearish, price below SMA50. Fundamentals: PEG 3.83, margin 0.0%, revenue growth 14.3%. Financial results: YoY revenue +16.4%, last EPS surprise -3.8%. FinGPT news read: positive. Internet research: SFNC’s **bull case** is that Q3 net interest margin expanded to 3.92%, adjusted EPS reached $0.54, and branch closures and cost controls could generate $37–$42 million in annual savings, supporting operating leverage and future earnings growth. The **bear case** is weaker balance-sheet momentum—loans and deposits declined sequentially—alongside a revenue miss, continued profitability concerns, and mixed analyst views, including a recent Sell rating with a $26 target. The major recent catalyst was the October 15 Q3 earnings report: adjusted EPS met consensus, but revenue of $251.2 million came below the roughly $254 million estimate, leaving investors focused on whether efficiency gains can offset sluggish growth. Suggested levels: entry $22.26, target $23.29, stop-loss $21.38, exit by 2026-10-25 (10-calendar-day max hold (time-stop; reassess by this date regardless of P&L)).
Past ratings for SFNC
| Date | Verdict | Confidence | Price | Move since | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | WEAK BUY | 31% | $22.26 | — |
"Move since" compares each call's price with the latest analysed price.
Recent news on SFNC
Oct 15, 2026 · Simmons First National Corp files an 8-K: earnings results
- Oct 15, 2026: Simmons First National: Q3 Earnings Snapshot (Associated Press)
- Oct 15, 2026: Simmons First National Corporation Reports Third Quarter Results (PR Newswire)
Frequently asked questions
Is SFNC a buy right now?
As of Oct 15, 2026, our automated model rates Simmons First National Corp (SFNC) WEAK BUY with 31% confidence: the signals lean positive, but they are mixed, so conviction is low. This is a model output for education, not personal investment advice.
What is the price target for SFNC?
The model's most recent plan targets $23.29 with a stop-loss at $21.38, from an entry near $22.26.
What does a WEAK BUY rating mean?
A WEAK BUY rating means the signals lean positive, but they are mixed, so conviction is low.
For information and education only. Not investment advice. Ratings are produced by an automated model, can be wrong, and may be out of date. Do your own research; you can lose money investing. The site's author may hold positions in stocks discussed here.