Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur (TSM) stock analysis

On Oct 13, 2026, our model rated Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur (TSM) WEAK BUY with 25% confidence at a price of $444.35. That means the signals lean positive, but they are mixed, so conviction is low.

Technical picture

The 14-day RSI is 46, close to the neutral 50 line, so momentum is balanced.

MACD is below its signal line, so short-term momentum is pointing down.

The price is above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, the classic picture of an uptrend.

Volume is about normal (0.9x the 20-day average).

Trend structure and money flow

Market structure: ranging / no clear structure.

The most recent swing high is $477.72 and the swing low is $371.72; traders often treat these as resistance and support.

Price is sitting in a bullish order block, a zone where large buyers stepped in before.

Fundamentals

The PEG ratio is 0.86, which looks cheap relative to its expected growth.

The company reports a profit margin of 49.9% and revenue growth of +36.0%.

In its latest quarter it earned $4.31 per share, which beat the $3.89 analysts expected, with revenue +36.0% year over year.

Wall Street's average rating is 1.4 on a 1 (strong buy) to 5 (sell) scale, roughly a "strong buy", with an average price target of $578.22.

The next earnings report is expected around Oct 15, 2026; prices often move sharply around earnings.

Trade plan from the model

The model's long / bullish plan uses an entry near $442.66, a target of $463.62 (+4.7%) and a stop-loss at $420.62 (-5.0%).

That is a reward-to-risk ratio of about 1.0 to 1: the potential loss is bigger than the gain, a weak setup.

The plan has a time limit: reassess by Oct 14, 2026 whatever the price does.

The model's one-paragraph read

Leans BUY — composite score +0.25 (WEAK BUY). Technicals: RSI 47.66, MACD bearish, price above SMA50. Fundamentals: PEG 0.85, margin 49.9%, revenue growth 36.0%. Financial results: YoY revenue +36.0%, last EPS surprise +10.8%, next earnings 2026-10-15. Smart Money Concepts: ranging / no clear structure, price retesting a bullish order block. FinGPT news read: neutral. Memory: 8 prior look(s); 0% of directional calls matched later price. Suggested levels: entry $442.66, target $463.62, stop-loss $420.62, exit by 2026-10-14 (exit before next earnings (2026-10-15) -- this signal doesn't price in that report).

Past ratings for TSM

Of the last 6 directional calls on TSM, 1 pointed the right way by the most recent analysis (17%). Past calls do not guarantee future results.

"Move since" compares each call's price with the latest analysed price.

Recent news on TSM

• Oct 14, 2026: TSMC shares rise ahead of closely watched Q3 earnings (Investing.com)
• Oct 13, 2026: Taiwan agrees to buy 30% of gas from Alaska LNG project, Trump says (CNBC)
• Oct 13, 2026: TSMC’s September sales surge year-over-year as AI drives chip demand (CNBC Earnings)

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Frequently asked questions

Is TSM a buy right now?

As of Oct 13, 2026, our automated model rates Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur (TSM) WEAK BUY with 25% confidence: the signals lean positive, but they are mixed, so conviction is low. This is a model output for education, not personal investment advice.

What is the price target for TSM?

The model's most recent plan targets $463.62 with a stop-loss at $420.62, from an entry near $442.66.

When does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur report earnings next?

The next earnings report is expected around Oct 15, 2026.

What does a WEAK BUY rating mean?

A WEAK BUY rating means the signals lean positive, but they are mixed, so conviction is low.