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Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) stock analysis
WEAK BUY 16% confidence · analysed Oct 7, 2026
On Oct 7, 2026, our model rated Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) WEAK BUY with 16% confidence at a price of $432.36. That means the signals lean positive, but they are mixed, so conviction is low.
Technical picture
The 14-day RSI is 59, showing healthy upward momentum without being stretched.
MACD is above its signal line, a sign that short-term momentum is turning up.
The price is above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, the classic picture of an uptrend.
Volume is only 0.5x its 20-day average; light trading makes the latest move less convincing.
Fundamentals
The PEG ratio is 1.00, which looks reasonably priced for its growth.
The company reports a profit margin of 5.5% and revenue growth of +53.7%.
In its latest quarter it earned $17.73 per share, which beat the $13.95 analysts expected, with revenue +53.8% year over year.
Wall Street's average rating is 2.4 on a 1 (strong buy) to 5 (sell) scale, roughly a "buy", with an average price target of $385.56.
The next earnings report is expected around Nov 3, 2026; prices often move sharply around earnings.
Trade plan from the model
The model's long / bullish plan uses an entry near $432.36, a target of $453.25 (+4.8%) and a stop-loss at $398.94 (-7.7%).
That is a reward-to-risk ratio of about 0.6 to 1: the potential loss is bigger than the gain, a weak setup.
The plan has a time limit: reassess by Oct 17, 2026 whatever the price does.
The model's one-paragraph read
Leans BUY — composite score +0.16 (WEAK BUY). Technicals: RSI 59.05, MACD bullish, price above SMA50. Fundamentals: PEG 1.00, margin 5.5%, revenue growth 53.7%. Financial results: YoY revenue +53.8%, last EPS surprise +27.1%, next earnings 2026-11-03. Memory: 4 prior look(s); 100% of directional calls matched later price. Suggested levels: entry $432.36, target $453.25, stop-loss $398.94, exit by 2026-10-17 (10-calendar-day max hold (time-stop; reassess by this date regardless of P&L)).
Past ratings for MPC
Of the last 3 directional calls on MPC, 3 pointed the right way by the most recent analysis (100%). Past calls do not guarantee future results.
| Date | Verdict | Confidence | Price | Move since | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | WEAK BUY | 16% | $432.36 | — | |
| Oct 5, 2026 | WEAK BUY | 16% | $427.55 | +1.1% | ✔ right direction |
| Sep 24, 2026 | WEAK BUY | 18% | $395.00 | +9.5% | ✔ right direction |
| Sep 23, 2026 | BUY | 37% | $393.20 | +10.0% | ✔ right direction |
"Move since" compares each call's price with the latest analysed price.
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Frequently asked questions
Is MPC a buy right now?
As of Oct 7, 2026, our automated model rates Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) WEAK BUY with 16% confidence: the signals lean positive, but they are mixed, so conviction is low. This is a model output for education, not personal investment advice.
What is the price target for MPC?
The model's most recent plan targets $453.25 with a stop-loss at $398.94, from an entry near $432.36.
When does Marathon Petroleum Corp report earnings next?
The next earnings report is expected around Nov 3, 2026.
What does a WEAK BUY rating mean?
A WEAK BUY rating means the signals lean positive, but they are mixed, so conviction is low.
For information and education only. Not investment advice. Ratings are produced by an automated model, can be wrong, and may be out of date. Do your own research; you can lose money investing. The site's author may hold positions in stocks discussed here.